{ "ok": true, "mode": "archive", "date": "2026-04-13", "generatedAt": "2026-04-13T19:30:00-04:00", "archiveIndex": [ { "date": "2026-06-07", "generatedAt": "2026-06-08T00:09:30.253Z", "statusLabel": "Restricted / effectively closed", "statusTone": "danger", "statusSummary": "The newest reporting points to major disruption, active attacks, and traffic that is still badly constrained in practice." }, { "date": "2026-06-06", "generatedAt": "2026-06-07T00:03:54.953Z", "statusLabel": "Open, but probably a bad idea to travel as bombs are flying", "statusTone": "warning", "statusSummary": "Recent headlines still talk about reopening or passage, but they also show attacks, seizures, or active maritime violence." }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "generatedAt": "2026-06-06T00:00:47.069Z", "statusLabel": "Open, but probably a bad idea to travel as bombs are flying", "statusTone": "warning", "statusSummary": "Recent headlines still talk about reopening or passage, but they also show attacks, seizures, or active maritime violence." }, { "date": "2026-06-04", "generatedAt": "2026-06-04T23:56:07.632Z", "statusLabel": "Restricted / effectively closed", "statusTone": "danger", "statusSummary": "The newest reporting points to major disruption, active attacks, and traffic that is still badly constrained in practice." }, { "date": "2026-06-03", "generatedAt": "2026-06-03T23:47:22.015Z", "statusLabel": "Open, but probably a bad idea to travel as bombs are flying", "statusTone": "warning", "statusSummary": "Recent headlines still talk about reopening or passage, but they also show attacks, seizures, or active maritime violence." }, { "date": "2026-06-02", "generatedAt": "2026-06-02T23:37:55.016Z", "statusLabel": "Restricted / effectively closed", "statusTone": "danger", "statusSummary": "As of April 23, 2026, the newest publicly available reporting still points to a badly disrupted Strait of Hormuz. Reuters on April 22 cited UKMTO and maritime security sources after ships were fired upon, while Reuters reporting on April 21 said traffic remained effectively closed in practice. The dashboard keeps a separate warning state whenever reopening language overlaps with violence or seizures." }, { "date": "2026-06-01", "generatedAt": "2026-06-01T23:31:54.196Z", "statusLabel": "Open, but probably a bad idea to travel as bombs are flying", "statusTone": "warning", "statusSummary": "Recent headlines still talk about reopening or passage, but they also show attacks, seizures, or active maritime violence." }, { "date": "2026-05-31", "generatedAt": "2026-05-31T23:27:53.837Z", "statusLabel": "Restricted / effectively closed", "statusTone": "danger", "statusSummary": "The newest reporting points to major disruption, active attacks, and traffic that is still badly constrained in practice." }, { "date": "2026-05-30", "generatedAt": "2026-05-30T23:22:38.494Z", "statusLabel": "Restricted / effectively closed", "statusTone": "danger", "statusSummary": "The newest reporting points to major disruption, active attacks, and traffic that is still badly constrained in practice." }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "generatedAt": "2026-05-29T23:17:37.807Z", "statusLabel": "Open, but probably a bad idea to travel as bombs are flying", "statusTone": "warning", "statusSummary": "Recent headlines still talk about reopening or passage, but they also show attacks, seizures, or active maritime violence." }, { "date": "2026-04-26", "generatedAt": "2026-04-26T05:08:28.177Z", "statusLabel": "Open, but probably a bad idea to travel as bombs are flying", "statusTone": "warning", "statusSummary": "Recent headlines still talk about reopening or passage, but they also show attacks, seizures, or active maritime violence." }, { "date": "2026-04-25", "generatedAt": "2026-04-26T01:02:02.810Z", "statusLabel": "Open, but probably a bad idea to travel as bombs are flying", "statusTone": "warning", "statusSummary": "Recent headlines still talk about reopening or passage, but they also show attacks, seizures, or active maritime violence." }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "generatedAt": "2026-04-25T00:59:56.220Z", "statusLabel": "Open, but probably a bad idea to travel as bombs are flying", "statusTone": "warning", "statusSummary": "Recent headlines still talk about reopening or passage, but they also show attacks, seizures, or active maritime violence." }, { "date": "2026-04-23", "generatedAt": "2026-04-24T00:56:39.274Z", "statusLabel": "Restricted / effectively closed", "statusTone": "danger", "statusSummary": "The newest reporting points to major disruption, active attacks, and traffic that is still badly constrained in practice." }, { "date": "2026-04-22", "generatedAt": "2026-04-22T20:10:00-04:00", "statusLabel": "Open, but probably a bad idea to travel as bombs are flying", "statusTone": "warning", "statusSummary": "Gunfire against merchant vessels overlapped with lingering reopening language, producing the dashboard's warning-state phrasing." }, { "date": "2026-04-21", "generatedAt": "2026-04-21T20:05:00-04:00", "statusLabel": "Restricted / effectively closed", "statusTone": "danger", "statusSummary": "Reporting that only three ships passed through the previous 24 hours pushed the dashboard back into practical-closure territory." }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "generatedAt": "2026-04-17T18:15:00-04:00", "statusLabel": "Open, but probably a bad idea to travel as bombs are flying", "statusTone": "warning", "statusSummary": "Iran publicly said passage was completely open, but security reporting and insurance pricing never returned to normal." }, { "date": "2026-04-15", "generatedAt": "2026-04-15T20:00:00-04:00", "statusLabel": "Restricted / effectively closed", "statusTone": "danger", "statusSummary": "Mine-clearing estimates and convoy constraints pushed the dashboard back into a practical-closure posture." }, { "date": "2026-04-13", "generatedAt": "2026-04-13T19:30:00-04:00", "statusLabel": "Open, but probably a bad idea to travel as bombs are flying", "statusTone": "warning", "statusSummary": "Public reopening language briefly outran operator confidence. Merchant traffic was inching back, but shipowners still priced the route as a war-risk transit." } ], "snapshot": { "date": "2026-04-13", "generatedAt": "2026-04-13T19:30:00-04:00", "statusLabel": "Open, but probably a bad idea to travel as bombs are flying", "statusTone": "warning", "statusSummary": "Public reopening language briefly outran operator confidence. Merchant traffic was inching back, but shipowners still priced the route as a war-risk transit.", "headlineHighlights": [ { "title": "Partial traffic restart draws mixed operator response", "link": "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/", "source": "Reuters" }, { "title": "War-risk surcharges remain elevated for Gulf-bound tonnage", "link": "https://www.lmalloyds.com/LMA/Underwriting/Marine/JWC_Hulls_List.aspx", "source": "Lloyd's market" } ], "marketSummary": [ { "label": "WTI", "value": "$82.7/bbl", "context": "up on reopening skepticism" }, { "label": "Brent", "value": "$86.1/bbl", "context": "risk premium still embedded" }, { "label": "VLCC", "value": "$146k/day", "context": "owners still demanding wartime pricing" } ], "costBand": { "low": "$49.3B", "mid": "$58.6B", "high": "$81.0B" }, "casualties": { "civilian": "1,520+", "military": "1,441+", "mixed": "2,102+" }, "notes": [ "This snapshot preserves the dashboard's warning-phase reading from the first partial reopening wave.", "It is a seeded historical snapshot, not a replay from a database." ] }, "bootstrap": { "appTitle": "Hormuz Watch", "seededAt": "2026-04-23T09:30:00-04:00", "warStartDate": "2026-02-28T00:00:00Z", "methodologyNote": "This dashboard mixes live headline monitoring with source-linked best-effort estimates. Strait status is headline-classified. Market and reserve modules combine direct figures with incident reporting. Spending and casualty cards are approximation-first and should be read as live working estimates, not official ledgers.", "strait": { "currentStatusCode": "restricted", "currentStatus": "Restricted / effectively closed", "tone": "danger", "summary": "As of April 23, 2026, the newest publicly available reporting still points to a badly disrupted Strait of Hormuz. Reuters on April 22 cited UKMTO and maritime security sources after ships were fired upon, while Reuters reporting on April 21 said traffic remained effectively closed in practice. The dashboard keeps a separate warning state whenever reopening language overlaps with violence or seizures.", "facts": [ "Reuters on April 22 cited UKMTO and maritime security sources after multiple vessels were fired upon while transiting near Hormuz.", "Reuters on April 21 reported the strait remained effectively closed and said only three ships had passed through in the previous 24 hours.", "Reuters on April 17 reported Iranian statements that passage for commercial vessels was completely open during a truce window." ], "bootstrapHeadlines": [ { "id": "seed-1", "title": "Three vessels hit by gunfire in Strait of Hormuz, crews safe", "link": "https://wsau.com/2026/04/22/three-vessels-hit-by-gunfire-in-strait-of-hormuz-crews-safe/", "pubDate": "Wed, 22 Apr 2026 03:33:00 GMT", "description": "Reuters cited UKMTO and maritime security sources after multiple ships were fired upon while transiting the waterway.", "source": "Reuters" }, { "id": "seed-2", "title": "US oil prices rise as US-Iran peace talks remain uncertain", "link": "https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/us-oil-prices-rise-as-usiran-peace-talks-remain-uncertain-4627899", "pubDate": "Tue, 21 Apr 2026 18:52:00 GMT", "description": "Reuters reported the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed and that only three ships had passed through in the previous 24 hours.", "source": "Reuters" }, { "id": "seed-3", "title": "Wall Street indexes rally after Iran says Strait of Hormuz 'completely open'", "link": "https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/wall-st-futures-climb-on-middle-east-peace-hopes-as-investors-eye-strong-finish-to-week-4619850", "pubDate": "Fri, 17 Apr 2026 05:42:00 GMT", "description": "Reuters said Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted that passage for commercial vessels was completely open during the truce.", "source": "Reuters" } ], "sources": [ { "label": "Reuters / WSAU - ships hit by gunfire", "url": "https://wsau.com/2026/04/22/three-vessels-hit-by-gunfire-in-strait-of-hormuz-crews-safe/", "date": "2026-04-22" }, { "label": "Reuters / Investing - effectively closed with only three ships passing", "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/us-oil-prices-rise-as-usiran-peace-talks-remain-uncertain-4627899", "date": "2026-04-21" }, { "label": "Reuters / Investing - Iran says the strait was completely open", "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/wall-st-futures-climb-on-middle-east-peace-hopes-as-investors-eye-strong-finish-to-week-4619850", "date": "2026-04-17" } ] }, "quotes": [ { "country": "United States", "official": "President Donald Trump", "role": "White House / CNBC interview", "date": "2026-04-21", "excerpt": "we're going to end up with a great deal", "whatItMeans": "Washington is signaling confidence and saying pressure is producing leverage.", "contradiction": "That optimism clashes directly with Iran saying U.S. moves are blocking diplomacy.", "sourceLabel": "White House release", "sourceUrl": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/04/president-trump-addresses-key-issues-facing-the-nation-in-exclusive-cnbc-interview/" }, { "country": "Iran", "official": "Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi", "role": "Foreign ministry statement reported after calls with Pakistan and Russia", "date": "2026-04-21", "excerpt": "\"continued violations of the ceasefire\" are a \"major obstacle\"", "whatItMeans": "Tehran says U.S. behavior, especially shipping pressure and blockade actions, is poisoning the talks.", "contradiction": "This directly rejects the U.S. story that the negotiating environment is improving.", "sourceLabel": "Xinhua summary of Iranian foreign ministry statement", "sourceUrl": "https://www.china.org.cn/world/Off_the_Wire/2026-04/21/content_118448556.shtml" }, { "country": "Pakistan", "official": "Deputy Prime Minister / Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar", "role": "Remarks after the Islamabad talks", "date": "2026-04-12", "excerpt": "Pakistan has been and will continue to play its role", "whatItMeans": "Islamabad still frames itself as an active mediator trying to keep both sides in the process.", "contradiction": "Pakistan talks like diplomacy is still salvageable even while U.S. and Iranian messaging keeps worsening.", "sourceLabel": "Pakistan MOFA", "sourceUrl": "https://mofa.gov.pk/press-releases/remarks-by-the-dpmfm-at-the-conclusion-of-the-islamabad-talks" }, { "country": "Israel", "official": "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu", "role": "Statement on negotiations with Lebanon", "date": "2026-04-10", "excerpt": "open direct negotiations with Lebanon as soon as possible", "whatItMeans": "Israel is willing to talk on one front while still centering hard security objectives.", "contradiction": "It sounds diplomatic on the surface, but the linked terms stay coercive and security-first.", "sourceLabel": "Israeli MFA", "sourceUrl": "https://embassies.gov.il/multilateral-organizations-france/en/news/prime-minister-benjamin-netanyahu-announces-opening-negotiations-lebanon" } ], "marketSignals": [ { "key": "wti", "label": "WTI Front-Month", "value": 89.4, "displayValue": "$89.4/bbl", "changeText": "+3.8% day-on-day", "tone": "warning", "summary": "Headline-sensitive proxy for how much the market is pricing Hormuz disruption into U.S.-linked crude.", "sourceLabel": "Reuters / Investing oil market wrap", "sourceUrl": "https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/us-oil-prices-rise-as-usiran-peace-talks-remain-uncertain-4627899", "asOf": "2026-04-23T08:00:00-04:00" }, { "key": "brent", "label": "Brent Front-Month", "value": 92.6, "displayValue": "$92.6/bbl", "changeText": "+3.2% day-on-day", "tone": "warning", "summary": "Global crude benchmark most directly exposed to a Hormuz shipping shock.", "sourceLabel": "Reuters / Investing oil market wrap", "sourceUrl": "https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/us-oil-prices-rise-as-usiran-peace-talks-remain-uncertain-4627899", "asOf": "2026-04-23T08:00:00-04:00" }, { "key": "vlcc", "label": "VLCC Gulf Day Rate", "value": 182000, "displayValue": "$182k/day", "changeText": "spiking versus pre-war lanes", "tone": "danger", "summary": "Very-large-crude-carrier spot pricing is a direct read on whether shipowners think transit is worth the risk.", "sourceLabel": "Shipping market desk synthesis", "sourceUrl": "https://www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers", "asOf": "2026-04-23T08:00:00-04:00" }, { "key": "insurance", "label": "War-Risk Insurance", "value": 0.8, "displayValue": "0.45% to 0.80% hull value", "changeText": "JWC-listed waters / quoted premium band", "tone": "danger", "summary": "When underwriters keep the Gulf on the Joint War Committee list and quoted premiums widen, shipping can stay technically open but practically unattractive.", "sourceLabel": "Lloyd's market / JWC list references", "sourceUrl": "https://www.lmalloyds.com/LMA/Underwriting/Marine/JWC_Hulls_List.aspx", "asOf": "2026-04-23T08:00:00-04:00" } ], "incidents": [ { "id": "inc-1", "date": "2026-04-22", "location": "Eastbound lane", "title": "Three merchant vessels report gunfire", "summary": "UKMTO-cited reporting said multiple container ships were fired upon while transiting the strait; crews were reported safe.", "severity": "high", "x": 68, "y": 36, "sourceLabel": "Reuters citing UKMTO", "sourceUrl": "https://wsau.com/2026/04/22/three-vessels-hit-by-gunfire-in-strait-of-hormuz-crews-safe/" }, { "id": "inc-2", "date": "2026-04-21", "location": "Central channel", "title": "Traffic shrinks to three passages in 24 hours", "summary": "Shipping remained technically possible but effectively closed in practice due to severe threat perception.", "severity": "high", "x": 58, "y": 31, "sourceLabel": "Reuters shipping conditions wrap", "sourceUrl": "https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/us-oil-prices-rise-as-usiran-peace-talks-remain-uncertain-4627899" }, { "id": "inc-3", "date": "2026-04-20", "location": "Approach to Musandam", "title": "Security warning for suspicious small craft", "summary": "Advisories warned ships to stay hardened and report unusual approach activity near the Omani side.", "severity": "medium", "x": 76, "y": 28, "sourceLabel": "UKMTO advisories", "sourceUrl": "https://www.ukmto.org/advisories" }, { "id": "inc-4", "date": "2026-04-19", "location": "Westbound lane", "title": "Tanker pauses after electronic interference", "summary": "Bridge crews reported navigation disruption and temporarily slowed while clearing the narrowest section.", "severity": "medium", "x": 49, "y": 34, "sourceLabel": "UKMTO advisories", "sourceUrl": "https://www.ukmto.org/advisories" }, { "id": "inc-5", "date": "2026-04-18", "location": "Near Qeshm", "title": "Boarding threat warning relayed to merchant traffic", "summary": "Maritime security channels cautioned that seizure risk remained elevated despite public ceasefire messaging.", "severity": "high", "x": 44, "y": 27, "sourceLabel": "Reuters and maritime security channels", "sourceUrl": "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/" }, { "id": "inc-6", "date": "2026-04-17", "location": "Full waterway", "title": "Iran says passage is completely open", "summary": "Iranian officials publicly said the lane was fully open during the truce period, creating a clear contrast with later security warnings.", "severity": "low", "x": 61, "y": 39, "sourceLabel": "Reuters market wrap", "sourceUrl": "https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/wall-st-futures-climb-on-middle-east-peace-hopes-as-investors-eye-strong-finish-to-week-4619850" }, { "id": "inc-7", "date": "2026-04-16", "location": "Southern traffic separation scheme", "title": "Mine-clearing estimate stretches into months", "summary": "Pentagon testimony suggested clearing the strait of mines could take months, even if the channel were politically reopened sooner.", "severity": "high", "x": 70, "y": 44, "sourceLabel": "Pentagon testimony coverage", "sourceUrl": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/04/22/strait-hormuz-mines-pentagon/" }, { "id": "inc-8", "date": "2026-04-15", "location": "Near Bandar Abbas", "title": "Convoy guidance tightened for merchant operators", "summary": "Operators were advised to harden routing plans and expect longer waits for escorted transit windows.", "severity": "medium", "x": 39, "y": 20, "sourceLabel": "UKMTO advisories", "sourceUrl": "https://www.ukmto.org/advisories" }, { "id": "inc-9", "date": "2026-04-14", "location": "Approach from Gulf of Oman", "title": "Drone sighting prompts cautionary notice", "summary": "Commercial traffic received a warning about unmanned aircraft activity near the entrance to the strait.", "severity": "medium", "x": 86, "y": 35, "sourceLabel": "UKMTO advisories", "sourceUrl": "https://www.ukmto.org/advisories" }, { "id": "inc-10", "date": "2026-04-13", "location": "Traffic separation scheme", "title": "Partial traffic restart draws mixed operator response", "summary": "Shipowners treated the reopening language cautiously and many still priced the route as a war-risk transit.", "severity": "medium", "x": 56, "y": 38, "sourceLabel": "Reuters shipping round-up", "sourceUrl": "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/" } ], "energyReserves": [ { "country": "Japan", "status": "Buffer still large", "daysRemaining": 230, "bufferText": "about 230 days of oil in reserve", "countdownAnchorDate": "2026-04-09T00:00:00Z", "stressDate": "2026-11-25T00:00:00Z", "exposure": "Very high exposure to Gulf oil imports.", "sourceLabel": "Kyodo via Reuters image/article pickup", "sourceUrl": "https://www.bworldonline.com/world/2026/04/09/741878/japan-weighs-new-release-of-about-20-days-worth-of-oil-from-reserves-kyodo-says/", "projectionState": "countdown", "projectionLabel": "225 days until projected stress", "isPastStress": false }, { "country": "South Korea", "status": "Buffer significant, but not comfortable", "daysRemaining": 91, "bufferText": "273 million barrels routed outside Hormuz, enough for more than three months under normal conditions", "countdownAnchorDate": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z", "stressDate": "2026-07-15T00:00:00Z", "exposure": "Extremely import-dependent and actively rerouting supply.", "sourceLabel": "Reuters / MarketScreener", "sourceUrl": "https://www.marketscreener.com/news/south-korea-says-secures-273-mln-barrels-of-crude-via-routes-outside-strait-of-hormuz-ce7e50dcd88af22d/", "projectionState": "countdown", "projectionLabel": "92 days until projected stress", "isPastStress": false }, { "country": "India", "status": "Projection expired", "daysRemaining": 25, "bufferText": "about 25 days of crude reserves was the last clean public figure at the start of March", "countdownAnchorDate": "2026-03-04T00:00:00Z", "stressDate": "2026-03-29T00:00:00Z", "exposure": "High reliance on Gulf crude and LPG; recent reporting says alternatives are running thin.", "sourceLabel": "Reuters pickup / Economic Times", "sourceUrl": "https://government.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/india-eyes-alternative-energy-supplies-amid-strait-of-hormuz-disruption/129007363", "projectionState": "past-stress", "projectionLabel": "15 days past projected stress", "isPastStress": true }, { "country": "United States", "status": "No immediate cliff", "daysRemaining": null, "bufferText": "409 million barrels in the SPR on April 10, plus more than 400 million barrels of commercial crude inventories", "countdownAnchorDate": "2026-04-10T00:00:00Z", "stressDate": null, "exposure": "Less directly exposed than Asian importers, but still highly exposed to price shock.", "sourceLabel": "EIA", "sourceUrl": "https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67504", "projectionState": "no-countdown", "projectionLabel": "No precise countdown", "isPastStress": false }, { "country": "China", "status": "Big stockpile, limited transparency", "daysRemaining": null, "bufferText": "nearly 1.4 billion barrels of strategic crude estimated as of December 2025", "countdownAnchorDate": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "stressDate": null, "exposure": "Massive reserves, but current public day-cover is not transparent enough for a precise countdown.", "sourceLabel": "EIA", "sourceUrl": "https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67504", "projectionState": "no-countdown", "projectionLabel": "No precise countdown", "isPastStress": false } ], "spending": { "title": "Approximate U.S. war spending", "displayScenario": "mid", "summary": "Use the range, not a single number. The low case follows the third-party cost ticker, the middle case follows a CSIS-style sustained-operations path, and the high case uses the Pentagon opening burn rate as a stress test.", "scenarios": { "low": { "key": "low", "label": "Low", "estimateMode": "Iran Cost Tracker low case", "model": "base-plus-ongoing", "knownCostUsd": 11300000000, "knownDays": 6, "ongoingDailyUsd": 1000000000, "whyThisNumber": "Uses the methodology cited on iran-cost-ticker.com: $11.3B for the first six days, then a lower ongoing burn rate of $1B/day.", "warning": "Third-party model, not an official U.S. ledger.", "sources": [ { "label": "Iran War Cost Tracker methodology", "url": "https://iran-cost-ticker.com/", "date": "2026-04-23" }, { "label": "Defense News - first six days cost $11.3B", "url": "https://www.defensenews.com/news/pentagon-congress/2026/03/12/price-tag-for-epic-fury-tops-11-billion-in-first-six-days-pentagon-tells-congress/", "date": "2026-03-12" } ] }, "mid": { "key": "mid", "label": "Mid", "estimateMode": "CSIS-style sustained operations", "model": "base-plus-ongoing", "knownCostUsd": 16500000000, "knownDays": 12, "ongoingDailyUsd": 1150000000, "whyThisNumber": "Starts from the CSIS day-12 update and then assumes a still-elevated but lower sustained-operations burn rate instead of keeping the opening surge forever.", "warning": "Analytic mid-case for directional planning, not an official total.", "sources": [ { "label": "CSIS day-12 war cost update", "url": "https://www.csis.org/analysis/iran-war-cost-estimate-update-113-billion-day-6-165-billion-day-12", "date": "2026-03-13" }, { "label": "Defense News - first six days cost $11.3B", "url": "https://www.defensenews.com/news/pentagon-congress/2026/03/12/price-tag-for-epic-fury-tops-11-billion-in-first-six-days-pentagon-tells-congress/", "date": "2026-03-12" } ] }, "high": { "key": "high", "label": "High", "estimateMode": "Pentagon-derived opening-surge stress case", "model": "base-plus-ongoing", "knownCostUsd": 11300000000, "knownDays": 6, "ongoingDailyUsd": 1883333333, "whyThisNumber": "Uses the Pentagon-reported opening burn rate from the first six days as a high-side stress case for what costs look like if elevated operating tempo persists.", "warning": "Useful as a ceiling scenario, but very likely too high for a long-run central estimate.", "sources": [ { "label": "Defense News - first six days cost $11.3B", "url": "https://www.defensenews.com/news/pentagon-congress/2026/03/12/price-tag-for-epic-fury-tops-11-billion-in-first-six-days-pentagon-tells-congress/", "date": "2026-03-12" } ] } } }, "casualties": { "asOf": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z", "civilianLowerBound": 1724, "militaryLowerBound": 1673, "unresolvedOrMixed": 2661, "summary": "These are lower-bound counts from source material that cleanly split civilians from military deaths. Large chunks of the regional toll are unresolved or mixed.", "breakdown": [ { "side": "Iran", "civilian": 1701, "military": 1221, "other": 714, "note": "HRANA figure cited by Reuters on April 10." }, { "side": "Israel", "civilian": 23, "military": 12, "other": 0, "note": "Reuters April 10 factbox using Israeli ambulance service and military figures." }, { "side": "United States", "civilian": 0, "military": 13, "other": 400, "note": "WSJ reported 13 U.S. military deaths and 400 wounded as of April 22." }, { "side": "Lebanon / Hezbollah front", "civilian": null, "military": 427, "other": 1830, "note": "Reuters said 1,830 killed in Lebanon, 400+ Hezbollah fighters dead, 14 Lebanese soldiers dead, and 13 state security personnel dead; civilian split unclear." }, { "side": "Iraq and other regional spillover", "civilian": null, "military": null, "other": 117, "note": "Reuters described the Iraqi toll as a mixed category of civilians, PMF, Peshmerga, police, and army." } ], "sources": [ { "label": "Reuters factbox on people killed in the Iran war", "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/factboxhow-many-people-have-been-killed-in-the-iran-war-4608248", "date": "2026-04-10" }, { "label": "WSJ - 400 U.S. service members injured; 13 dead", "url": "https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-war-us-ceasefire-2026/card/400-u-s-service-members-injured-in-iran-war-cQJyrCOsnmVPI48U5rh9", "date": "2026-04-22" } ] }, "archiveAutomation": { "storageMode": "blob", "durable": true } } }